Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
